I've learned over the years that it's pointless to try to guess what Steve Jobs is going to announce at any given Macworld keynote address. I don't know how ThinkSecret manages to get 90% of its predictions correct, but my track record is somewhere hovering around 5% (and that's being a bit generous). The only think I do know is that whatever is announced will be impressive, even if it initially seems anti-climactic. Case in point: the latest iMac G5. When I was keeping up with the product announcements (via a live source feeding text information), I wasn't terribly impressed...until I saw the video stream later and saw just how much potential the Front Row software had.
Regardless, I woke up this morning in a "SteveNote Eve" frame of mind, so I thought I'd discuss some of the rumors that are floating around regarding Apple's forthcoming product announcements.
Intel laptops
I think it's been all but confirmed that the new Intel-powered Apple laptop will be announced tomorrow. And it would seem to follow that the Mac mini will also get the Intel treatment, since the mini is essentially a headless iBook in a small box. I have no doubt we'll see the first production Intel Macs at MacWorld Expo tomorrow; I'm just a bit anxious to see their specs. I just bought my first PowerBook last February, and I'd hate to think it's going to get blown away by a consumer model so soon.
iPod Shuffle revamp
It will be interesting to see what happens to the iPod shuffle. I haven't yet taken the iPod plunge yet, and the shuffle as it stands wouldn't be my first choice; let's see if Apple is paying attention to the post-nano low-end iPod crowd.
Front Row 2.0
I actually managed to get Front Row 1.0 installed on my PowerBook, and it's pretty darn sweet. Of course, since I don't keep much in the way of music or photos on my PowerBook, it's rather limited in functionality, but it is a great supplement to the Mac interface. I could definitely see myself using it quite a bit on a home-centered Mac.
Media Center Mac mini
A Mac mini + Front Row + AirPort combination seems to be a natural progression. The mini is diminutive enough to fit inconspicuously near a TV or entertainment center, but the main question in my mind is this: how will such a product will be positioned in the market? If the iPod is the portable multimedia device, what will the Mac mini be? If the iPod carries the content, then the mini will have to be the device that delivers that content, as well as relaying various other information (think regular computing). Will we see a Mac OS X interface redux in the form of a return to 640 x 480 resolution support (for those who aren't yet on the HD bandwagon)? I doubt it, but we'll see.
iLife '06 with iWeb
The thing that annoys me about the iLife line is the naming scheme: as soon as the current year is over, the product seems obsolete. Of course, that's also the brilliance of Apple's marketing, since iLife is typically priced reasonably enough that most people don't mind buying it year after year. If iWeb is included (and is compelling enough), this will be a no-brainer for me. Some of you may know that I tried to launch a few Mac communities back in 2004, but my limited technical knowledge doomed the projects from the outset. A product like iWeb may allow me to revisit those projects with renewed zeal.
.Mac enhancements
I haven't heard a whole lot on this front, aside from a huge increase in bandwidth limitations that is supposedly intended to be tied to a new streaming service. I would love to see PHP and mySQL support on .Mac, as well...since I'm paying for it anyway, it would be nice to have that flexibility. Of course, as indicated by the previous item, they would have to provide an easy way for me to work with those technologies if I am to take full advantage of them.
That's all I have time to post this morning; I may follow up with more thoughts a bit later (then again, I may not). I just thought it was kind of funny how I woke up this morning with the giddy anticipation that I used to feel as a kid on Christmas Eve. I wonder how many other Mac geeks feel the same way....
Monday, January 09, 2006
Tuesday, January 03, 2006
The MPAA made me break the DMCA
I've never really understood the appeal of downloading movies. I have several friends who do so using their PCs, and 95% of the downloads they attempt end up being intentionally mislabeled porn titles, attempts at distributing malware, or foreign language (or badly recorded) versions of the movies they're trying to get.
To me, it just seems like less hassle to buy or rent DVDs. After all, most DVDs can be purchased for under $20 or rented for a fraction of that using a service like NetFlix.
However, I've noticed a trend in DVDs lately, and it has driven me to the point of purchasing a DVD burner and DVD copying software and just abandoning the idea of ever purchasing movies from certain studios again. What I'm referring to are the previews and warnings that precede the actual movie (or menu) that are coded in such a way as to not let you bypass them using the "Menu" button.
If I've just shelled out $19.99 to buy a DVD for my family (or myself), I should be able to view the enclosed content in any way I like...in fact, I should be able to do anything I want with that content, short of using it commercially or distributing it illegally. My purchase of the media gives me Fair Use rights.
Apparently, the MPAA doesn't see it that way. It seems that they want to FORCE me to have to watch the MTV-ish "Piracy Is Stealing" short that they hobbled together, as well as previews for other DVD titles that are presumably configured in the same manner.
Here's what I'm talking about; I'm sure you've seen it in front of movies in the theater or on DVDs in recent months:
(cue aggressive techno music)
(grainy, jerky hand-held shot of someone breaking into car)
You wouldn't steal a car.
(grainy, jerky hand-held shot of someone stealing a purse)
You wouldn't steal a purse.
(grainy, jerky hand-held shot of someone taking a cell phone)
You wouldn't steal a cell phone.
(grainy, jerky hand-held shot of someone shoplifting a DVD)
You wouldn't steal a DVD.
(grainy, jerky hand-held shot of a street vendor set up selling bootleg DVDs)
Buying pirated films is stealing.
Stealing is against the law.
Piracy. It's a crime.
And, inexplicably, it's followed by a warning that seems to be unrelated to "buying pirated films":
[ I ] Illegal Downloading. Inappropriate for All Ages.
(cleverly designed in the format of a movie ratings bar).
(I say "unrelated," because I would think that someone buying pirated movies from a street vendor would be doing so because s/he didn't know how to download them illegally.)
It goes on to show a montage of several other films that are coming out on video. While I can't escape the previews using the "menu" button, I am able to skip these (how considerate of them).
So, what pirate-bait title could this possibly be? An action-adventure or sci-fi epic? No, this title is Robots, the 2005 computer animated film that's rated PG, but clearly marketed towards children.
My wife took our 5-year-old daughter to see Robots this past summer, and they both loved it, so they found it under the Christmas tree this year. Now, every time my daughter goes to watch the DVD, she has to sit through the piracy warning and lame previews for Garfield and Fat Albert before she can actually see her movie. That's about 5 minutes of anxious, wasted time every time she watches the movie.
The movie that we purchased. Legally.
"Daddy, I don't want to see this part again. I don't like it."
"I'm sorry sweetheart, I can't make it stop. We'll just have to wait."
"Why does it do that?"
I'd explain it to her, but I don't think she could wrap her 5-year-old mind around the DMCA and the related undertones of corporate greed and paranoia.
So, I've bought a DVD burner and some "backup" software, and I'm going to make a copy (of a movie I own) without all that crud in front of it. And in doing so, I will be violating the DMCA (or so I understand...I don't actually feel like reading the whole thing just to support this blog entry). Congratulations, entertainment industry: you've alienated another customer.
Now, the news outlets are reporting a 7% or so drop in movie ticket sales for this holiday season, and people are starting to point the blame at piracy. I don't buy it, and here's why:
DVD player sales have reached a near saturation point, and large screen TVs are starting to drop in price and sell in greater numbers. While I don't think that piracy is blameless, I don't think that it has the impact that the MPAA seems to suggest. I think a large part of sagging ticket sales is the fact that more and more people prefer to spend their money on a DVD and enjoy movies with friends and family at home. It's much cheaper that way, too. Let's compare watching a movie at the theater vs. watching the DVD at home:
Tickets (Family of 4)
(2x) Adult tickets at $9 each.
(2x) Child tickets at $6 each.
Total ticket price: $30
Snacks
1 Large popcorn (for the adults): $5
1 Medium popcorn (for the kids): $4
2 large sodas (adults): $4
2 small sodas (kids): $2
Total snacks price: $21
Total cost for night out at the movies: $51
Plus, you might have to deal with projector problems, incessant talkers, cell phones, and other distractions...and you can't pause or go back if you need to run out of the theater for any reason (like taking one of the kids to the bathroom).
Now, waiting until the movie comes out on DVD, the cost would be much less significant:
Buying a DVD: $20
Microwave popcorn: $5 (for everyone)
A couple of 2-liter sodas: $3
Total cost for DVD for the family: $28
Plus, you usually get extras on the DVD, the comfort of your own home, the ability to pause if there is a distraction, you get to make whatever you darn well want to eat or drink, and you don't have to pay to see the movie again if you want to watch it over and over again.
Another factor worth mention is that there are an awful lot of movies being made lately. Many people can only afford a night out at the movies every now and then, so when it comes to making a choice which movie to see, they'll choose the ones they really feel strongly about seeing in the theater, knowing they'll be able to catch the others on DVD in a few months.
So, is it piracy that's eating into ticket sales, or is it a fundamental shift in the way people enjoy movies? Given the factors listed above, I think it's the latter.
The entertainment industry (music and movies, in particular) needs to learn to adapt, and adapt soon. Apple has taken the leadership position in the digital music revolution, and it looks as though they're about to take digital video by storm, as well. Apple seems to have figured out the new entertainment paradigm, and they have reaped from it handsomely.
And at first, the music companies were clamoring to line up to get on the iTunes Music Store. Recently, though, it seems they're questioning the pricing model (it seems they want to charge more for "premium" content) and threatening to back out.
Here's a hint to entertainment industry executives: it took an outsider to figure out how to adapt to the new digital ecosystem. Don't look a gift horse in the mouth. Like Steve Jobs said not so long ago...you're competing with piracy. Even with a successful business model like iTunes, you're competing with free (albeit illegal) file distribution. You can adjust to placate the masses that want your content digitally, or you can watch helplessly as you are file-shared out of relevance. Sure, there are a lot of people swapping music and movies online, but most of those people either (a) already saw the movie in the theater, or (b) weren't going to pay to see it anyway. There are very few (at least in my experience) who download and burn movies to keep in their video library...it's just not practical. Real film fans are going to see movies in the theaters and buy the DVDs, especially if they continue to offer compelling extras on the DVDs (give yourselves some credit for getting that content distribution model right!).
However, if you continue on your paranoid and greedy path of treating every consumer as a criminal, you may just well be creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. Sony is learning that lesson right now. Sure, it's costing millions to settle the CD rootkit fiasco, but how much has been lost in bad faith by the public? I don't think that's measurable.
...but then again, what do I know? My wife just came home with a new Sony DVD player.
To me, it just seems like less hassle to buy or rent DVDs. After all, most DVDs can be purchased for under $20 or rented for a fraction of that using a service like NetFlix.
However, I've noticed a trend in DVDs lately, and it has driven me to the point of purchasing a DVD burner and DVD copying software and just abandoning the idea of ever purchasing movies from certain studios again. What I'm referring to are the previews and warnings that precede the actual movie (or menu) that are coded in such a way as to not let you bypass them using the "Menu" button.
If I've just shelled out $19.99 to buy a DVD for my family (or myself), I should be able to view the enclosed content in any way I like...in fact, I should be able to do anything I want with that content, short of using it commercially or distributing it illegally. My purchase of the media gives me Fair Use rights.
Apparently, the MPAA doesn't see it that way. It seems that they want to FORCE me to have to watch the MTV-ish "Piracy Is Stealing" short that they hobbled together, as well as previews for other DVD titles that are presumably configured in the same manner.
Here's what I'm talking about; I'm sure you've seen it in front of movies in the theater or on DVDs in recent months:
(cue aggressive techno music)
(grainy, jerky hand-held shot of someone breaking into car)
You wouldn't steal a car.
(grainy, jerky hand-held shot of someone stealing a purse)
You wouldn't steal a purse.
(grainy, jerky hand-held shot of someone taking a cell phone)
You wouldn't steal a cell phone.
(grainy, jerky hand-held shot of someone shoplifting a DVD)
You wouldn't steal a DVD.
(grainy, jerky hand-held shot of a street vendor set up selling bootleg DVDs)
Buying pirated films is stealing.
Stealing is against the law.
Piracy. It's a crime.
And, inexplicably, it's followed by a warning that seems to be unrelated to "buying pirated films":
[ I ] Illegal Downloading. Inappropriate for All Ages.
(cleverly designed in the format of a movie ratings bar).
(I say "unrelated," because I would think that someone buying pirated movies from a street vendor would be doing so because s/he didn't know how to download them illegally.)
It goes on to show a montage of several other films that are coming out on video. While I can't escape the previews using the "menu" button, I am able to skip these (how considerate of them).
So, what pirate-bait title could this possibly be? An action-adventure or sci-fi epic? No, this title is Robots, the 2005 computer animated film that's rated PG, but clearly marketed towards children.
My wife took our 5-year-old daughter to see Robots this past summer, and they both loved it, so they found it under the Christmas tree this year. Now, every time my daughter goes to watch the DVD, she has to sit through the piracy warning and lame previews for Garfield and Fat Albert before she can actually see her movie. That's about 5 minutes of anxious, wasted time every time she watches the movie.
The movie that we purchased. Legally.
"Daddy, I don't want to see this part again. I don't like it."
"I'm sorry sweetheart, I can't make it stop. We'll just have to wait."
"Why does it do that?"
I'd explain it to her, but I don't think she could wrap her 5-year-old mind around the DMCA and the related undertones of corporate greed and paranoia.
So, I've bought a DVD burner and some "backup" software, and I'm going to make a copy (of a movie I own) without all that crud in front of it. And in doing so, I will be violating the DMCA (or so I understand...I don't actually feel like reading the whole thing just to support this blog entry). Congratulations, entertainment industry: you've alienated another customer.
Now, the news outlets are reporting a 7% or so drop in movie ticket sales for this holiday season, and people are starting to point the blame at piracy. I don't buy it, and here's why:
DVD player sales have reached a near saturation point, and large screen TVs are starting to drop in price and sell in greater numbers. While I don't think that piracy is blameless, I don't think that it has the impact that the MPAA seems to suggest. I think a large part of sagging ticket sales is the fact that more and more people prefer to spend their money on a DVD and enjoy movies with friends and family at home. It's much cheaper that way, too. Let's compare watching a movie at the theater vs. watching the DVD at home:
Tickets (Family of 4)
(2x) Adult tickets at $9 each.
(2x) Child tickets at $6 each.
Total ticket price: $30
Snacks
1 Large popcorn (for the adults): $5
1 Medium popcorn (for the kids): $4
2 large sodas (adults): $4
2 small sodas (kids): $2
Total snacks price: $21
Total cost for night out at the movies: $51
Plus, you might have to deal with projector problems, incessant talkers, cell phones, and other distractions...and you can't pause or go back if you need to run out of the theater for any reason (like taking one of the kids to the bathroom).
Now, waiting until the movie comes out on DVD, the cost would be much less significant:
Buying a DVD: $20
Microwave popcorn: $5 (for everyone)
A couple of 2-liter sodas: $3
Total cost for DVD for the family: $28
Plus, you usually get extras on the DVD, the comfort of your own home, the ability to pause if there is a distraction, you get to make whatever you darn well want to eat or drink, and you don't have to pay to see the movie again if you want to watch it over and over again.
Another factor worth mention is that there are an awful lot of movies being made lately. Many people can only afford a night out at the movies every now and then, so when it comes to making a choice which movie to see, they'll choose the ones they really feel strongly about seeing in the theater, knowing they'll be able to catch the others on DVD in a few months.
So, is it piracy that's eating into ticket sales, or is it a fundamental shift in the way people enjoy movies? Given the factors listed above, I think it's the latter.
The entertainment industry (music and movies, in particular) needs to learn to adapt, and adapt soon. Apple has taken the leadership position in the digital music revolution, and it looks as though they're about to take digital video by storm, as well. Apple seems to have figured out the new entertainment paradigm, and they have reaped from it handsomely.
And at first, the music companies were clamoring to line up to get on the iTunes Music Store. Recently, though, it seems they're questioning the pricing model (it seems they want to charge more for "premium" content) and threatening to back out.
Here's a hint to entertainment industry executives: it took an outsider to figure out how to adapt to the new digital ecosystem. Don't look a gift horse in the mouth. Like Steve Jobs said not so long ago...you're competing with piracy. Even with a successful business model like iTunes, you're competing with free (albeit illegal) file distribution. You can adjust to placate the masses that want your content digitally, or you can watch helplessly as you are file-shared out of relevance. Sure, there are a lot of people swapping music and movies online, but most of those people either (a) already saw the movie in the theater, or (b) weren't going to pay to see it anyway. There are very few (at least in my experience) who download and burn movies to keep in their video library...it's just not practical. Real film fans are going to see movies in the theaters and buy the DVDs, especially if they continue to offer compelling extras on the DVDs (give yourselves some credit for getting that content distribution model right!).
However, if you continue on your paranoid and greedy path of treating every consumer as a criminal, you may just well be creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. Sony is learning that lesson right now. Sure, it's costing millions to settle the CD rootkit fiasco, but how much has been lost in bad faith by the public? I don't think that's measurable.
...but then again, what do I know? My wife just came home with a new Sony DVD player.
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