trying to navigate a cluttered mind / life

Wednesday, March 08, 2006

Will Apple Boldly Go...?

This is a momentous year for anniversaries for geeks like me. In less than a month, on April 1, Apple Computer will turn 30. Like many thousands of other Mac geeks worldwide, I'm expecting something big to be announced by Apple...maybe something having to do with the mysterious touch screen iPod-like device that was conspicuously missing from the "Fun New Products" event last week (if it does indeed exist). That would be enough in and of itself -- I believe that such a device would be the next step in the evolution of consumer media technology, and could revolutionize the way we interact with our digital content (purchased or otherwise).

But, as fate would have it, 2006 marks another anniversary: it's the 40th year of Star Trek. Although there are no current Star Trek series in production, there is an archive of over 700 television episodes syndicated in some form or another in seeming perpetuity. But aside from some conventions and some standard self-promotional (low key) campaigns, the Star Trek people seem to be keeping below the radar. Unusually so, considering the occasion.

Why would this be? 40 years of any TV brand is a big deal. And given the fact that Star Trek's new owner is one of the oldest TV broadcast networks, this seems just a bit odd. CBS, you ask? Why, yes...Star Trek was under the Paramount Television banner for its entire modern existence until early 2006, when Paramount Television was folded into CBS (out from under the Viacom family of brands).

Now, these two anniversaries, separately, are cause enough for the geek in all of us to celebrate. But what if something -- somehow -- tied these two cultural icons together?

Something like, say, the iTunes Music Store.

This seems a natural fit: if the full-screen iPod is indeed a reality, it would very much resemble Star Trek-like technology. CBS is rumored to be in negotiations with Apple for an iTunes Music Store distribution deal. With one of the largest episodic television libraries ever, and a cultural fan base of millions, Star Trek on iTunes would be the ultimate foray into portable content distribution. At a few episodes a time, purchasing the entire Trek library would ensure a steady stream of revenue to the iTMS (and CBS) at a higher return than the DVD box sets (note: this is purely a guess on my part).

A combined launch of a full-screen iPod and a CBS content distribution deal (featuring the Star Trek license, initially) would virtually guarantee the top position for Apple, at least in the short term, in the digital video content distribution wars that are just ramping up.


[note: edited to correct the typo in the title, as pointed out by the first commentator below...(thanks!)]

The revolution has already started...

[note: I originally wrote most of this on March 2 (last Thursday), but I thought I had lost it...it was, in fact, in the Drafts folder, so I finished it up and posted it today. Sorry for any confusion.]


OK, so maybe my knee-jerk reaction to Apple's "Fun New Products" event was a bit negative.

Apple is going exactly the route I was expecting. Not that I'm any sort of prophet; everyone seemed to be expecting some sort of media center Mac mini and an "iPod boombox." I think it's just that most folks (me included) were expecting a more radical change for the mini.

And I think that's why we don't run Apple, and Steve Jobs does.

Where anyone of the "Fun New Product" event's critics would have taken a bold new direction, Steve has made a slight alteration in course. Steady as she goes, so to speak.

The Mac mini is the most important product Apple has at the moment. Before you ask me to pass the crack pipe, let me explain: yes, the iPod is a juggernaut, and it shows no signs of slowing. The iPod has shown the world that people actually care about their portable media, and they're not afraid to spend more money on a good product to help them transport and enjoy that media. However, the iPod as it currently exists (in its various incarnations) is approaching the top of its arc in popularity. The iPod is about to undergo a fundamental shift in architecture, and when it does, the world will once again have to adjust its perceptions on how to interact with personal information and media.

More than any other product currently in Apple's portfolio, the Mac mini has the potential to change the way we experience the wealth of digital information we are so quickly collecting. It is poised as the progenitor (along with the iPod) of a new class of computing and portable media device. Along with the infrastructure of iTunes and AirPort Extreme, the Mac mini is set to partner with the iPod to provide a home digital content management system that will take consumers by storm. The iPod HiFi is testament to this.

Remember, the Mac mini is essentially just a reconfigured laptop. Imagine having a portable power source for it...like, say...a car? Imagine a standard docking solution integrated in an automobile -- heck, people have already started integrating minis into vehicles.

When I first heard of that phenomenon, I was a bit taken aback...I mean, how can you drive and use your Mac at the same time? But let's go to the land of imagination once more:

You're getting set for a family trip. You make sure to pack the digital camera, the DV camcorder, and your Mac Media mini (mobileMe, anyone?). Since the mini is so small, you just grab it from its power base on the entertainment center, carry it to the minivan, and plug it into its dock in the console. You know you have plenty of music and video for the trip, because your iTunes library is on the HD. The fold-down displays and headphone jacks in the back seats for the kids (and optionally, for the front passenger) are already integrated into the digital content management system. If the kids don't want to watch the same movie or listen to the same music, that's OK...you're bringing the iPod along, too...little Johnny or Suzie can just plug the iPod into the dock next to his or her headphones and enjoy something else.

Additionally, you've already planned the trip, and you've saved some reference files for various stops along the trip. Part of the digital system in the car allows you to toggle a heads-up display on the windshield in front of you to view quick reference visuals (thankfully, rich media content is filtered from that display to prevent distractions from driving).

You also remembered to pack your iBook, since you or your spouse (whoever is sitting in the passenger's seat), may want to pass the travel time putting together the family photos and videos while the vacation is still a fresh memory. By the time you get home, you'll have a complete (or near-complete) home video of the trip; all you'll need to do is burn the DVD (if you didn't already do so in the van).


I can see that scenario playing out within the next 24 - 36 months. And the thing is, the foundation has already been poured with the iPod / iTunes combo. Airport Express is another key element in this strategy, and the Mac mini is evolving into one of the last key pieces of this infrastructure.

Steve Jobs is reigniting the platform wars. He has been for the past five years; it's only just now becoming clear. Apple has already claimed our personal space and our vehicles with the iPod. It's now taking our homes with the current iPod / Mac mini combo. In appealing to our passions and our intellects, Apple is harvesting the consumer's mindshare in scores. This, in turn, will raise consumer awareness of Apple branding and quality, which will eventually spill over into the office.

Tuesday, February 28, 2006

Are we having "Fun" yet?

Mac minis with Intel processors and a slightly revamped version of Front Row. For $100 and $300 more than the previous base model.

A $350 boom box that you can plug an iPod into.

This is "fun"?

Maybe I'm missing something, but these seem quite overpriced. I thought the whole idea of a Mac mini was that it was supposed to be the cheapest Mac ever. It's starting to resemble the Power Mac Cube more and more, from a marketing standpoint. Apple needs to remember that it's fighting for the dollars of people who are used to walking home with an entire system (keyboard, mouse, display and all) for less than what the Mac mini now costs.

And who thought that a $350 add-on to a $300 - $400 product would be at all appealing? It's portable...great. For $350, it had better be the best sounding boom box EVER. I'm glad they made it portable, because at that price, I certainly won't be buying one for each room of the house.

I'm fairly disappointed that we didn't see more. I was certainly expecting more from the revamped Mac mini. Maybe Apple's saving the good stuff for their 30th anniversary on April 1.

I sure hope so.

Monday, January 09, 2006

A SteveNote Eve Frame of Mind

I've learned over the years that it's pointless to try to guess what Steve Jobs is going to announce at any given Macworld keynote address. I don't know how ThinkSecret manages to get 90% of its predictions correct, but my track record is somewhere hovering around 5% (and that's being a bit generous). The only think I do know is that whatever is announced will be impressive, even if it initially seems anti-climactic. Case in point: the latest iMac G5. When I was keeping up with the product announcements (via a live source feeding text information), I wasn't terribly impressed...until I saw the video stream later and saw just how much potential the Front Row software had.

Regardless, I woke up this morning in a "SteveNote Eve" frame of mind, so I thought I'd discuss some of the rumors that are floating around regarding Apple's forthcoming product announcements.

Intel laptops
I think it's been all but confirmed that the new Intel-powered Apple laptop will be announced tomorrow. And it would seem to follow that the Mac mini will also get the Intel treatment, since the mini is essentially a headless iBook in a small box. I have no doubt we'll see the first production Intel Macs at MacWorld Expo tomorrow; I'm just a bit anxious to see their specs. I just bought my first PowerBook last February, and I'd hate to think it's going to get blown away by a consumer model so soon.

iPod Shuffle revamp
It will be interesting to see what happens to the iPod shuffle. I haven't yet taken the iPod plunge yet, and the shuffle as it stands wouldn't be my first choice; let's see if Apple is paying attention to the post-nano low-end iPod crowd.

Front Row 2.0
I actually managed to get Front Row 1.0 installed on my PowerBook, and it's pretty darn sweet. Of course, since I don't keep much in the way of music or photos on my PowerBook, it's rather limited in functionality, but it is a great supplement to the Mac interface. I could definitely see myself using it quite a bit on a home-centered Mac.

Media Center Mac mini
A Mac mini + Front Row + AirPort combination seems to be a natural progression. The mini is diminutive enough to fit inconspicuously near a TV or entertainment center, but the main question in my mind is this: how will such a product will be positioned in the market? If the iPod is the portable multimedia device, what will the Mac mini be? If the iPod carries the content, then the mini will have to be the device that delivers that content, as well as relaying various other information (think regular computing). Will we see a Mac OS X interface redux in the form of a return to 640 x 480 resolution support (for those who aren't yet on the HD bandwagon)? I doubt it, but we'll see.

iLife '06 with iWeb
The thing that annoys me about the iLife line is the naming scheme: as soon as the current year is over, the product seems obsolete. Of course, that's also the brilliance of Apple's marketing, since iLife is typically priced reasonably enough that most people don't mind buying it year after year. If iWeb is included (and is compelling enough), this will be a no-brainer for me. Some of you may know that I tried to launch a few Mac communities back in 2004, but my limited technical knowledge doomed the projects from the outset. A product like iWeb may allow me to revisit those projects with renewed zeal.

.Mac enhancements
I haven't heard a whole lot on this front, aside from a huge increase in bandwidth limitations that is supposedly intended to be tied to a new streaming service. I would love to see PHP and mySQL support on .Mac, as well...since I'm paying for it anyway, it would be nice to have that flexibility. Of course, as indicated by the previous item, they would have to provide an easy way for me to work with those technologies if I am to take full advantage of them.

That's all I have time to post this morning; I may follow up with more thoughts a bit later (then again, I may not). I just thought it was kind of funny how I woke up this morning with the giddy anticipation that I used to feel as a kid on Christmas Eve. I wonder how many other Mac geeks feel the same way....

Tuesday, January 03, 2006

The MPAA made me break the DMCA

I've never really understood the appeal of downloading movies. I have several friends who do so using their PCs, and 95% of the downloads they attempt end up being intentionally mislabeled porn titles, attempts at distributing malware, or foreign language (or badly recorded) versions of the movies they're trying to get.

To me, it just seems like less hassle to buy or rent DVDs. After all, most DVDs can be purchased for under $20 or rented for a fraction of that using a service like NetFlix.

However, I've noticed a trend in DVDs lately, and it has driven me to the point of purchasing a DVD burner and DVD copying software and just abandoning the idea of ever purchasing movies from certain studios again. What I'm referring to are the previews and warnings that precede the actual movie (or menu) that are coded in such a way as to not let you bypass them using the "Menu" button.

If I've just shelled out $19.99 to buy a DVD for my family (or myself), I should be able to view the enclosed content in any way I like...in fact, I should be able to do anything I want with that content, short of using it commercially or distributing it illegally. My purchase of the media gives me Fair Use rights.

Apparently, the MPAA doesn't see it that way. It seems that they want to FORCE me to have to watch the MTV-ish "Piracy Is Stealing" short that they hobbled together, as well as previews for other DVD titles that are presumably configured in the same manner.

Here's what I'm talking about; I'm sure you've seen it in front of movies in the theater or on DVDs in recent months:

(cue aggressive techno music)

(grainy, jerky hand-held shot of someone breaking into car)
You wouldn't steal a car.
(grainy, jerky hand-held shot of someone stealing a purse)
You wouldn't steal a purse.
(grainy, jerky hand-held shot of someone taking a cell phone)
You wouldn't steal a cell phone.
(grainy, jerky hand-held shot of someone shoplifting a DVD)
You wouldn't steal a DVD.
(grainy, jerky hand-held shot of a street vendor set up selling bootleg DVDs)
Buying pirated films is stealing.
Stealing is against the law.

Piracy. It's a crime.


And, inexplicably, it's followed by a warning that seems to be unrelated to "buying pirated films":

[ I ] Illegal Downloading. Inappropriate for All Ages.
(cleverly designed in the format of a movie ratings bar).

(I say "unrelated," because I would think that someone buying pirated movies from a street vendor would be doing so because s/he didn't know how to download them illegally.)

It goes on to show a montage of several other films that are coming out on video. While I can't escape the previews using the "menu" button, I am able to skip these (how considerate of them).

So, what pirate-bait title could this possibly be? An action-adventure or sci-fi epic? No, this title is Robots, the 2005 computer animated film that's rated PG, but clearly marketed towards children.

My wife took our 5-year-old daughter to see Robots this past summer, and they both loved it, so they found it under the Christmas tree this year. Now, every time my daughter goes to watch the DVD, she has to sit through the piracy warning and lame previews for Garfield and Fat Albert before she can actually see her movie. That's about 5 minutes of anxious, wasted time every time she watches the movie.

The movie that we purchased. Legally.

"Daddy, I don't want to see this part again. I don't like it."

"I'm sorry sweetheart, I can't make it stop. We'll just have to wait."

"Why does it do that?"


I'd explain it to her, but I don't think she could wrap her 5-year-old mind around the DMCA and the related undertones of corporate greed and paranoia.

So, I've bought a DVD burner and some "backup" software, and I'm going to make a copy (of a movie I own) without all that crud in front of it. And in doing so, I will be violating the DMCA (or so I understand...I don't actually feel like reading the whole thing just to support this blog entry). Congratulations, entertainment industry: you've alienated another customer.

Now, the news outlets are reporting a 7% or so drop in movie ticket sales for this holiday season, and people are starting to point the blame at piracy. I don't buy it, and here's why:

DVD player sales have reached a near saturation point, and large screen TVs are starting to drop in price and sell in greater numbers. While I don't think that piracy is blameless, I don't think that it has the impact that the MPAA seems to suggest. I think a large part of sagging ticket sales is the fact that more and more people prefer to spend their money on a DVD and enjoy movies with friends and family at home. It's much cheaper that way, too. Let's compare watching a movie at the theater vs. watching the DVD at home:

Tickets (Family of 4)
(2x) Adult tickets at $9 each.
(2x) Child tickets at $6 each.
Total ticket price: $30

Snacks
1 Large popcorn (for the adults): $5
1 Medium popcorn (for the kids): $4
2 large sodas (adults): $4
2 small sodas (kids): $2
Total snacks price: $21

Total cost for night out at the movies: $51


Plus, you might have to deal with projector problems, incessant talkers, cell phones, and other distractions...and you can't pause or go back if you need to run out of the theater for any reason (like taking one of the kids to the bathroom).

Now, waiting until the movie comes out on DVD, the cost would be much less significant:

Buying a DVD: $20
Microwave popcorn: $5 (for everyone)
A couple of 2-liter sodas: $3

Total cost for DVD for the family: $28


Plus, you usually get extras on the DVD, the comfort of your own home, the ability to pause if there is a distraction, you get to make whatever you darn well want to eat or drink, and you don't have to pay to see the movie again if you want to watch it over and over again.

Another factor worth mention is that there are an awful lot of movies being made lately. Many people can only afford a night out at the movies every now and then, so when it comes to making a choice which movie to see, they'll choose the ones they really feel strongly about seeing in the theater, knowing they'll be able to catch the others on DVD in a few months.

So, is it piracy that's eating into ticket sales, or is it a fundamental shift in the way people enjoy movies? Given the factors listed above, I think it's the latter.

The entertainment industry (music and movies, in particular) needs to learn to adapt, and adapt soon. Apple has taken the leadership position in the digital music revolution, and it looks as though they're about to take digital video by storm, as well. Apple seems to have figured out the new entertainment paradigm, and they have reaped from it handsomely.

And at first, the music companies were clamoring to line up to get on the iTunes Music Store. Recently, though, it seems they're questioning the pricing model (it seems they want to charge more for "premium" content) and threatening to back out.

Here's a hint to entertainment industry executives: it took an outsider to figure out how to adapt to the new digital ecosystem. Don't look a gift horse in the mouth. Like Steve Jobs said not so long ago...you're competing with piracy. Even with a successful business model like iTunes, you're competing with free (albeit illegal) file distribution. You can adjust to placate the masses that want your content digitally, or you can watch helplessly as you are file-shared out of relevance. Sure, there are a lot of people swapping music and movies online, but most of those people either (a) already saw the movie in the theater, or (b) weren't going to pay to see it anyway. There are very few (at least in my experience) who download and burn movies to keep in their video library...it's just not practical. Real film fans are going to see movies in the theaters and buy the DVDs, especially if they continue to offer compelling extras on the DVDs (give yourselves some credit for getting that content distribution model right!).

However, if you continue on your paranoid and greedy path of treating every consumer as a criminal, you may just well be creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. Sony is learning that lesson right now. Sure, it's costing millions to settle the CD rootkit fiasco, but how much has been lost in bad faith by the public? I don't think that's measurable.

...but then again, what do I know? My wife just came home with a new Sony DVD player.
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